Predictive Model

Model

  • A simplified representation of reality created to serve a purpose.

  • E.g., Map, Architectural blueprint, Engineering prototype Mathematical Model

    • E.g., a formula: V=IR

Prediction

  • To estimate an unknown value (target variable)

Predictive Model

  • To setup a formula for estimating an unknown value (target variable) of interest

  • Supervised Learning

  • It is often built and tested using events from historical data.

  • Usage Example

    • Predictive models for spam filtering estimate whether a given piece of email is spam.
  • Predictive Model Form
    • Mathematical Form
    • Logical statement such as a rule
    • But often it is a hybrid of the two
  • Predictive Model Type

    • Classification models
    • Class-probability estimation models
    • Regression models
  • Predictive Modeling
    • To create a model which describes a relationship between a set of selected variables (attributes or features) and a target variable.
    • It estimates the value of the target variable as a function of the selected variables

Terminology

[Source: Data Science for Business]

  • Terminology
    • Instance (or Example)
      • a fact or a data point
      • Feature Vector (or Row)
    • Attributes
      • An instance is described by a set of attributes (or fields, columns, variables, or features)
      • Independent variables or predictors
    • Target Variable
      • Dependent variable

Model Induction

  • Induction
    • A term from philosophy that refers to generalizing from specific cases to general rules (or laws, or truths).
  • Model Induction
    • The creation of models from data
    • Most inductive procedures have variants that induce models both for classification and for regression.
  • Training Data
    • The input data for the induction algorithm, used for inducing the model
    • They are also called labeled data
  • Induction vs. Deduction
    • Deduction starts with general rules and specific facts, and creates other specific facts from them.
    • The use of our models can be considered a procedure of deduction.

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